If you ask yourself what are the real basic needs or killerapps that people will probably spend money on endlessly no matter what, you will probably narrow it down to something like : gambling, sex, sports, shopping (on a slightly different note - my good friend Gil once quoted his father's saying allegedly a relic of the communist era- "there are three things people can look at tirelessly: flowing water, dancing flames... and someone else working ;)
I have been troubled for quite some time with the question of the seemingly underserved market for online-virtual-multiuser-sex/porn (MMOVSG - Massively Multiuser Online Virtual Sex Games). With the massive popularity of "2D porn", the emergence of VW and MMO's and the ever increasing sensitization thresholds one would imagine that this would take off????
Yeah - there are some beginnings like RedLightCenter a lot of talk about sex in SL center (see this for some funny updates) but by and large there has yet to surface any major adult industry player and move in on this market. A good MMOVSG site (is that an oxymoron?) to see the current state of the industry would be this place.
so here are some thoughts:
- Geography 1 - this will happen in Japan - no doubt! Why - first they are really into technology, gadgets and all that, they are way up there on the social networking thing and because of cultural idiosyncrasies porn is absolutely mainstream there (when I was working there i was initially shocked to see serious adult business men in the subway in rush hour browsing through kiddie anime porn - and i mean this in the best of ways;)
- Geography 2 - Japan - obviously 3D visualization technology is not up to par with real live video. In the Japanese market there is already a great abundance of adult anime (called Hentai or Adult Manga) so they are already used to consume non-realistic forms of adult entertainment. I read somewhere that the Hentai adult market is 200Billion Yen (~1.8B$). I think that was a 2006 number.
- First wave?: although some MMOVSG's are already out there it is reasonable to assume that the first wave of mass adoption would be in single user applications that will mimic the conventional adult entertainment experience. As always web killerapps seem to be based on taking something that is already working great and just transforming it into a new venue/level and not changing the rules of the game totally. That being said - the ability to customize the experience and share it with others is probably a really strong incentive that, over time and with market education will drive users here.
- I/O devices...!: I have been saying for a while that the whole VR thing is highly dependant on input and output devices that will enhance the experience and transform it from a cool game into highly believable experience. Nowhere is this true as here - obviously the sexual experience is something that derives from visceral emotions/senses and not from enlightened thought so the more sensory inputs you've got working for you the better. Some people have decided to bud this field of adult remote sensory stimulation "TeleDildonics" (fancy that on your business card). I would start just by taking a look at Kyle Machulis' site slashdong
- I/O 2: beyond the "specialized" devices that i mention above, obviously stuff like 3D cameras and VR goggles with HD quality will probably be a big boost to the space of VR and of course to this area as well (I know of a few companies that allegedly work on the 3D one of which is my friend's Eldar MantisVision...)
- Pornnovation - A great place to look at if you are thinking seriously about this field is Arse Elektronika - THE conference about innovation dealing with digital media, robotics, the web and adult entertainment.
- A perfect fake - this is an amazing (really) and disturbing 60 min documentary directed by Marc de Guerre about the myth of the search for the perfect human drone/fake. Of course it focuses on the female figure and touches on adult entertainment but also airs some interesting views from academia and such - really a must see!
Some last thoughts on a slightly different note:
I have long held the opinion that loud music, violent movies and porn are great avenues for venting violent thoughts and have lobbied for opening up the Internet connections of our neighboring countries to stuff like that with the thought that if you are watching BayWatch you will not go to war. Some time ago my good friend (and serious economist and novo Zionist) Yoav found some interesting corroborating evidence for that...see here in his blog ;)
MC
